A new analysis of one million keywords has produced the clearest picture yet of how AI is transforming Google search. The findings are striking: nearly half of all tracked keywords are losing search volume, while a fifth are growing. The divide maps almost perfectly onto how AI Overviews interact with different types of search intent.
The Core Finding: A Search Volume Split
Researchers analyzing one million keywords across categories found:
- 40.7% of keywords show declining search volume - AI Overviews answer these queries directly, reducing the need for users to click through to websites
- 20.1% of keywords show growing volume - largely queries that AI tools have created demand for, or action-oriented searches where users still need to click
- 39.2% of keywords show stable volume - AI Overviews have limited presence for these query types
The split follows a clear pattern: informational queries ("what is X," "how does Y work") are the losers. Action and commercial queries ("buy X," "hire Y near me," "X pricing 2026") are the winners or stable performers.
Where AI Overviews Appear in US Search
AI Overviews now appear in an estimated 47-64% of all Google searches as of mid-2026. In the US market, Google rolled out AI Overviews earlier and more broadly than in other markets, meaning US-focused websites have been absorbing this traffic shift longer.
High AIO presence (60%+ of queries):
- Health and medical information
- General how-to questions
- Historical and factual queries
- Definition and explanation searches
Low AIO presence (under 20% of queries):
- Local search ("near me," city + service)
- Commercial queries (product pages, pricing)
- Navigational queries (brand names, website lookups)
- Time-sensitive news and events
The CTR Impact: Position 1 Is Worth Less
Position 1 organic CTR has dropped from approximately 27% (pre-AIO baseline) to approximately 11% in categories with high AIO coverage. For US publishers who built traffic on informational content, this is a structural shift, not a temporary fluctuation.
The practical implication: a site ranking position 1 for a high-AIO informational query in 2026 receives roughly 40% of the clicks it would have received for the same position in 2024. Improving from position 3 to position 1 now yields a fraction of the traffic gain it would have two years ago.
What the Data Means for US SEO Strategy
The keyword analysis confirms a shift that top US SEOs have observed but struggled to quantify until now:
Stop writing for definitions. "What is [topic]" queries now produce AIO responses in the majority of cases. Content ranking for these terms no longer generates meaningful traffic for most publishers.
Write for decisions. Content that helps users choose - what to buy, which vendor to hire, whether to take an action - retains click-through. AI Overviews are reluctant to make explicit recommendations or list specific local vendors.
Original data is a moat. Statistics, survey results, and research data attract both backlinks and AI citation. When AI cites your data, it often generates clicks to verify the source.
Action content survives. Step-by-step tutorials, how-to guides with screenshots, and implementation walkthroughs retain value because users following a process return to the source repeatedly.
The Growing Keywords: New Opportunities
The 20.1% of keywords showing volume growth represent genuine opportunities for US content publishers:
- AI tool and workflow queries: "How to use Claude for [task]," "best AI tools for [role]"
- Verification queries: Users checking AI output accuracy
- AI-in-category queries: "[Existing category] + AI" variants growing in every vertical
- Local and service queries: Largely AIO-immune, still high click-through
For US Businesses: Paid Search as the Parallel Strategy
As organic informational traffic declines, paid search becomes more important for US businesses targeting awareness-stage audiences. Understanding which queries are now "captured" by AIO (and therefore not worth paying for) versus which remain high-intent commercial queries is the core skill for 2026 Google Ads strategy.
The traffic analysis in this article directly complements the strategic shifts described in Google's advertising platform updates - including the AI Max campaign format rollout that is changing how US advertisers reach customers across Google's properties.
